Bengal: Why Mamata will win — and why she could lose — from Bhabanipur
Bengal: Why Mamata will win — and why she could lose — from Bhabanipur
By Kunal Chatterjee
Bhabanipur is the constituency from which Mamata Banerjee has won three times in the past, each by substantial margins. In 2021, Trinamool Congress (TMC) heavyweight Sovandeb Chatterjee won the seat. After Banerjee lost in Nandigram, Chatterjee vacated the seat, and in the subsequent by-election, Banerjee returned to the Assembly with a comfortable victory.
Yet, according to a TMC strategist, she was advised this time to shift to a safer constituency in Kolkata amid concerns that the constituency’s demography had changed. The chief minister, however, refused. She is still expected to win, the strategist conceded, but the contest is likely to be tougher due to deletions under the special intensive revision (SIR) process as well as demographic shifts.
SIR has led to the deletion of nearly 50,000 voters in the constituency, largely during adjudication, the strategist claimed. Many of those removed were Muslims, along with non-Muslim poor and slum residents who have traditionally supported the party.
Despite this, Banerjee remained firm. "I will contest from Bhabanipur and Bhabanipur alone," she is quoted as having saidsaying. The strategist remains cautiously optimistic: "SIR deletions hurt, but TMC workers reached every home before rivals woke up. That door-to-door hustle will pay dividends."
Even in elections the party has won, decisive leads came from only three of the constituency’s eight wards. In the remaining five wards, the party often trailed in both Assembly and general elections. Paradoxically, in municipal elections, the TMC has won all eight wards. Local councillors are therefore seen as crucial in mobilising voters and persuading residents that retaining Bhabanipur’s status as a VIP constituency depends on supporting the chief minister.
Much will also depend on when Banerjee begins campaigning from 24 April, with polling scheduled for 29 April. The final days of campaigning are expected to be critical.
Explore more opinions, analysis, and insights by Sujit Chatterjee .
